Prediction Market Data: Outcomes, Prices and Resolution Records
Keep market definitions, outcome assets, trading observations and resolution evidence distinguishable in an analytical dataset.
Overview
When translating these concepts into an integration, keep the scope described by the wallet history api with the result. The examples in wallet transaction history and smart contract event logs show how the same distinction affects neighbouring data questions.
Prediction market data combines a stated question, possible outcomes, market activity and a mechanism for resolving the result. A dashboard may present these concepts as a simple price and chart, but the underlying records need a more careful structure.
A useful integration keeps market definitions, outcome identities, orders, executed trades and resolution observations separate. It preserves time and methodology context before deriving volume, activity or a probability-like display. This makes the dataset useful for investigation and analytics without confusing an observed market price with a guaranteed outcome or a completed settlement.
Preserve market and outcome identities
Retain the market reference, network context where applicable, outcome identifiers and the versioned question or definition used by the workflow. A short title is descriptive context, not a reliable unique key. Similar questions can differ in timing, accepted evidence or resolution conditions.
The Polymarket market-data documentation is one primary example of a structured market metadata interface. A general integration should preserve the actual fields and relationships supplied by its chosen contract. Test two markets sharing a similar title and one market with several outcomes. Searches, trade tables and exports should retain the exact identities rather than merging records because their visible question text appears equivalent.
Keep resolution conditions and document revisions explicit
The market question and accepted resolution conditions provide context for interpreting its outcome records. Retain effective periods, relevant references and any supported definition changes rather than assuming the current page describes every historical trade's context.
A sample data can contain a market whose description is clarified after activity has already occurred. The dataset should keep the relationship between the earlier and later description where the analytical workflow needs it. A metadata update should not silently rewrite original trade identities or become a new executed trade. If the application cannot establish which definition applied, preserve that uncertainty rather than deriving a confident result from a shortened title alone.
Distinguish orders, executions and balance movements
An order describes an intention under a market interface, while a trade describes an accepted execution observation. Outcome-asset movements and account balance changes can add further records. Keep those types distinct before counting activity or aggregating volume.
One order can produce several execution records, and cancelled or unmatched orders should not automatically become executed volume. A synthetic test can include a partial fill, a cancellation and repeated delivery of the same trade. Preserve stable execution identities and the relationship to the order. The application can present a concise activity item while retaining the evidence needed to explain which quantities actually contributed to the analytical trade count or volume series.
Explain what the displayed price measures
An observed bid, ask, last trade or interval aggregate can differ at the same displayed time. Retain the price type, outcome identity, unit and observation boundary. A market-level headline should not hide which of those measurements was selected.
A probability-like display adds interpretation to the observation. Its meaning depends on the market arrangement, fees, liquidity and the method used by the consuming interface. Preserve the original price and avoid treating a displayed percentage as a calibrated forecast established by the data alone. Test a quiet interval, a missing side of the order view and an old last trade. The chart should distinguish those conditions instead of presenting every value as one equally current measurement.
Represent resolution and settlement as supported states
A proposed outcome, accepted resolution observation and completed account settlement can be different events in the relevant mechanism. Keep their references and timestamps separately. A closed trading state does not by itself establish that every downstream account record has completed processing.
Record the actual states supplied by the interface rather than inventing a universal final flag. Test an unresolved market, an accepted outcome whose related account observation is missing and a revised metadata response. The analytical dataset should preserve what is known and identify the missing relationship. This lets another workflow determine its own accepted prerequisites without interpreting one visible badge as evidence of every settlement consequence.
Build aggregates from compatible observations
Define volume units, interval boundaries and included record types before publishing a metric. A count of orders, trades, participants and outcome-asset transfers describes different populations. Preserve the grain and stable identities through joins so enrichment does not inflate totals.
Test duplicate executions, similar market names, missing prices and unresolved settlement observations. Retain calculation versions and the accepted metadata context with exports. Useful prediction market analytics gives readers a route from a chart to its supporting records and market definition. It can describe observed activity without inventing causal explanations, guaranteeing an outcome or treating an incomplete response as a complete history of every participant and account relationship.
Questions about the topic
Frequently asked questions
Are orders and trades the same market activity?
No. Orders can remain unmatched, be cancelled or produce several executions. Retain the record types and stable execution identities before counting volume or activity.
Does a displayed percentage establish the true outcome probability?
Not by itself. Preserve the underlying price type and market context. A probability-like display adds interpretation and does not establish a guaranteed outcome or universally calibrated forecast.
Does a resolved market mean every account settled?
The mechanism can expose distinct resolution and account-processing observations. Retain supported states and references rather than assuming one label establishes all downstream outcomes.
Standards & technical documentation
